I watched the economic debate in the Canadian election tonight. I thought it was a tie between Harper and Mulcair. I did notice how Justin Trudeau kept interupting other speakers where Harper and Mulcair didn’t , and I wondered if Trudeau was running for ‘Heckler in Chief’ rather than PM.
Half way through my wife, who isn’t political, said she couldn’t stand listening to Justin Trudeau and I thought it was just me. And then my son came home and asked me who I was voting for. I said probably Harper ’cause I thought the other two were idiots. But I quickly corrected that. I said the guy on the left (Trudeau) was an idiot, but the guy in the middle (Mulcair) I just totally disagreed with his policies. Mulcair had won me over.
And then a light came on. Everyone in Canada is assuming that if there is a Minority Government that the Liberals and the NDP will line up, defeat the Conservatives, and form a government. But I think I saw something different tonight.
Harper and Mulcair are long game players. Trudeau is risking all on a short term play. And if he loses, the other two will be positioned to finish him off.
Suppose a minority as most assume will happen. The Conservatives and the NDP will be in a position to slice and dice the Liberal base. ‘Tom, you take the urban progressives, I will take the suburban famililies.’ Says Harper.
‘OK’ says Tom. ‘I want the Environmental crowd, you can have the recent immigrants’.
‘OK. And Quebec?’
‘I own it’ says Tom. ‘Think you can take it?’
‘Let me sleep on that’ say Harper. ‘The East coast?’
‘We added 30 seats this year. That is the East coast. Add 30 more , who cares.’
So they write up some legislation that divides up the population as suggested. Trudeau doesn’t know which side to take, cause, he isn’t supposed to know.
And with that Harper’s vision of a two party state moves towards reality. And Mulcair and the NDP become the opposition forever. And the Government in waiting.